Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.938576 1.100216 1.281291 1.499198 1.754398 2.043927 2.397537
2024-10-20 0.650909 0.854094 1.108425 1.450336 1.898459 2.466567 3.242903
2024-10-27 0.497144 0.706986 0.991288 1.404987 1.992650 2.799285 3.994072
2024-11-03 0.416326 0.631988 0.943552 1.427048 2.160302 3.233968 4.932160
2024-11-10 0.377087 0.605631 0.954643 1.527250 2.446247 3.869322 6.251956
2024-11-17 0.335342 0.566326 0.936933 1.575912 2.654561 4.410364 7.503376
2024-11-24 0.294688 0.520930 0.900613 1.585497 2.796067 4.858288 8.663453
2024-12-01 0.257967 0.475628 0.856358 1.572371 2.892851 5.238754 9.756816
2024-12-08 0.228403 0.438014 0.819127 1.564349 2.994361 5.636607 10.933649
2024-12-15 0.206633 0.411234 0.797062 1.579771 3.139072 6.129028 12.354661
2024-12-22 0.179696 0.370351 0.742462 1.524007 3.137044 6.340214 13.252938
2024-12-29 0.174466 0.371900 0.770237 1.635361 3.482904 7.277835 15.755887
2025-01-05 0.152954 0.337201 0.721442 1.584336 3.491043 7.541973 16.910439
2025-01-12 0.134109 0.305538 0.674803 1.531645 3.489207 7.787853 18.071675
2025-01-19 0.118263 0.278090 0.633238 1.483672 3.489970 8.037940 19.278980
2025-01-26 0.109661 0.265889 0.623668 1.506971 3.656755 8.682715 21.505121
2025-02-02 0.107395 0.268285 0.647727 1.612817 4.034093 9.867697 25.217948
2025-02-09 0.101741 0.261570 0.649318 1.664220 4.286063 10.788712 28.417178
2025-02-16 0.094259 0.249144 0.635287 1.674345 4.435487 11.478021 31.127919
2025-02-23 0.086325 0.234359 0.613268 1.660480 4.520261 12.014356 33.514558
2025-03-02 0.079478 0.221465 0.594327 1.652006 4.618167 12.598575 36.123946
2025-03-09 0.074405 0.212672 0.584975 1.668297 4.786386 13.394612 39.453932
2025-03-16 0.066713 0.195430 0.550500 1.609391 4.734660 13.580277 41.054838